The United States is on pace to miss its climate goals by a significant margin. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the country committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030. However, as of January 2024, nine years later, the decrease has only reached 17%, leaving 33% still to be eliminated over the next six years, necessitating a threefold increase in the reduction rate.
While it’s easy to blame ineffective policies, bureaucratic hurdles, lack of political motivation, the oil industry, and numerous other factors, the broader reality is that achieving this goal was always going to be arduous from a logistical viewpoint, independent of human-related obstacles. With 3 terawatts of clean energy projects stalled in the development pipeline and an average approval period exceeding four years, many of these initiatives will languish for four years only to face rejection, damaging developers and their relationships with project financing entities.
The principal obstacle to a clean energy transition is the grid itself: in particular, many sections of the grid are too overloaded to accommodate new generation projects, and constructing new transmission infrastructure requires 10 to 12 years. This process cannot be expedited either. Planning requirements are extensive, and transmission infrastructure frequently impacts hundreds or thousands of stakeholders who hold the right to contest and appeal proposed construction. Consequently, the average transmission project typically does not commence actual construction until seven or eight years after project initiation. This implies that if all new transmission infrastructure needed to achieve our climate targets by 2030 were initiated today, construction on most would not even commence until after the 2030 deadline has passed.
Accessible solutions
One potential solution to this issue is upgrading existing wind farms with advanced technology, a practice known as repowering. Wind turbines, like all mechanical systems, deteriorate over time, becoming more susceptible to failures and less efficient during operation. While many areas of the grid remain too congested to connect new projects, much of the transmission infrastructure constructed specifically for existing wind farms is likely underutilized since their associated wind farms are no longer functioning at their full capacity.
Credit: Sample Power
There are numerous advantages to enhancing existing projects over initiating new ones. Current wind farms are strategically located in areas with the best wind resources, which is why these sites were developed first. New grid technologies, which integrate well with wind energy, can cost-effectively increase transmission capacity. One such technology is dynamic line rating (DLR) systems, which allow for the safe transmission of excess power beyond standard transmission limits, as long as the DLR systems verify that transmission lines are effectively dissipating extra heat – a scenario that occurs when the wind is blowing. Lastly, it is much simpler and less time-consuming to upgrade existing transmission lines than to construct new ones, meaning it could be significantly faster to expand existing wind farm transmission capacity whenever needed rather than to develop new sites. More redevelopment also implies less development of new habitats and scenic landscapes.
Wind turbine technology has significantly advanced over the past decade, thanks to progress in materials science that enables us to manufacture larger, more efficient blades. Likewise, decades of data collection have led to more productive and robust mechanical systems. Twenty years ago, the average capacity of an onshore wind turbine was below 2 megawatts. Today, onshore turbines are roughly double the physical size on average, can achieve 16 megawatts in capacity, are projected to have longer lifespans, and can extract considerably more power than their older versions due to their enhanced length. They are also becoming increasingly sustainable, as considerable advancements have been made in designing blades with improved recyclability in mind.
Expenses and advantages of repowering
The rationale for repowering is substantiated in multiple ways. The EPA estimates that the average household produces seven tons of emissions annually through consuming 11,300 kilowatt-hours of electricity. According to the EIA, wind generates 425 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in the United States each year. By increasing wind output by just 20% – an outcome likely achievable through repowering – we could supply clean electricity for an additional 7.5 million households. While this alone won’t fulfill our climate objective, it would significantly address the challenge without necessitating any new wind or transmission development.
Credit: Enel
It also makes practical sense to upgrade wind technology. Over the past 15 years, there have been 14 new generations of iPhones. Most of us have replaced our devices multiple times during this period to take advantage of technological innovations that offer better performance and durability. Throughout human history, we have continually developed new technologies to replace the old. Why shouldn’t we do the same for wind, especially when the urgency to upgrade is particularly critical?
Finally, the economic rationale is undeniable. Technological advancements have rendered wind the most affordable form of energy globally, cheaper than coal, natural gas, and solar. According to the DOE, investment in U.S. onshore wind energy alone was nearly $11 billion last year, but this only represents a small portion of the overall economic activity that wind generates. Consider if this power is redirected to new data centers driving growth in AI, or to new manufacturing facilities. These establishments will attract investment and compensate employees, contributing to economic growth as well. Moreover, these new facilities and data centers will increase demand for raw materials and enhance the productivity of knowledge-based workers, creating an economic flywheel that amplifies its value far beyond the initial investment.
At a moment when decarbonization must be accelerated to meet essential climate objectives, capitalizing on the abundant repowering opportunities present today is vital and should be prioritized.
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