By Prasad Ashok Thakur, CIMO scholar and Labanya Prakash Jena, CFA
The transportation industry significantly accelerates the progression of the global economy. An International Maritime Organization (IMO) report estimates that approximately 90 percent of products traded worldwide rely on maritime transport. By the year 2050, the organization anticipates the sector will expand by 50-250 percent. According to IMO’s 2020 OHO research, global shipping was responsible for about 2.9 percent of total anthropogenic emissions and 10 percent of emissions attributed to the transportation sector. The report subsequently proposes that the sector aims to achieve comprehensive decarbonization by mid-century, while reducing emissions by 20 percent by 2030 and 70 percent by 2040. Thus, the sector is on the brink of a transformative energy shift, seeking to diminish its carbon intensity through a range of options provided by efficiency-enhancing technologies, electrification, and low/zero-carbon fuels.
Maritime transport is regarded as a hard-to-decarbonize sector.
Maritime transport is deemed the lifeblood of international trade. It encompasses a complex web of sea routes, vessels, ports, and cargo-handling equipment in terms of hard infrastructure. Additional assets include various types of ships, such as trawlers, tugboats, and ferries that are frequently utilized to traverse inland and coastal waterways. On the intangible aspect, a coherent and globally recognized framework of navigation regulations, financing structures, insurance products, digital services, and skilled workforce contributes to creating a highly sophisticated ecosystem. This framework facilitates the mass movement of goods across the globe, thereby deploying some of the largest machinery on Earth, powered by equally substantial engines. With the rapid evolution of seamless multimodal supply chain frameworks, maritime assets are expected to connect with land and air transport modes without compromising efficiency. The sector also includes a significant number of recreational boats. Given the inherent diversity and global distribution of the aforementioned energy-intensive assets and stakeholders, transportation is classified as a hard-to-decarbonize sector.
Balancing lower emissions and greater growth
It is estimated that between 2012-2023, the carbon footprint of global maritime transport increased by approximately 15 percent, reaching around 710 MtCO2. The transport sector has arrived at a pivotal moment in the current global transition towards green energy. Innovations in digital-led operations, low-emission fuels, and enhancements in engine efficiency are propelling it along the path to decarbonization. On the regulatory front, a series of progressive decarbonization mandates has positioned clean technologies to be rapidly developed, tested, and deployed. Like any form of innovation, the initial price points may seem higher than existing technologies/products. This may manifest in a temporary rise in transportation costs for seaborne trade. Nevertheless, as these innovations scale up, they become more economically competitive, with costs redistributed across the value chain to the responsible entity. In line with this framework, vessels engaged in commerce within the European Union (EU) are expected to comply with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) starting this year. This will allow time-sensitive cargo deliveries to previously underserved locations at a competitively priced point, without negatively affecting the environment.
Proactive community interventions for decarbonization
It is crucial that the decarbonization strategies implemented within the sector do not undermine its cost-competitiveness and ensure full compliance with various regulatory requirements, particularly regarding safety. The carbon footprint at the fleet level must be decreased through operational and technological interventions. A report from DNV suggests that by the early 2030s, the demand for carbon-neutral fuels could surge to 45 million tonnes of oil equivalent under the most favorable conditions. However, until low/zero-carbon fuels become widely accepted, energy efficiency measures are poised to drive operational profits over the next decade while simultaneously reducing emissions. Empirical evidence indicates that the adoption of such strategies yields significant fuel savings.
Alternative strategies being considered include ‘pooled’ compliance with emission reduction targets. This essentially means that carbon intensity reduction objectives can be appropriately allocated across a fleet of multiple vessels that may or may not belong to the same company. Therefore, not every vessel needs to meet these targets individually, as the targets are accomplished at the fleet level. It is estimated that this approach could reduce decarbonization expenses by five percent. Utilizing zero-emissions renewable energy while vessels are docked at port could potentially fulfill up to seven percent of their energy needs. Thus, stakeholders from the energy sector, shipbuilding industry, port development and operations, fuel suppliers, carbon capture & storage solution providers, and others, must collaborate to establish mutually beneficial business models.
Sailing towards net zero
In addition to fully transitioning to zero-carbon fuels, reducing the carbon footprint to achieve net-zero requires the implementation of recovery systems for waste heat, onboard carbon capture and storage units, wind and wave-assisted propulsion systems, digitally smart onboard equipment for performance monitoring and verification, among others. It is essential to note that no single fuel or technological solution is expected to dominate the sector’s decarbonization efforts. Consequently, various alternatives such as LPG, LNG, biofuels, green hydrogen/methanol/ammonia, and nuclear propulsion will carve out their specific niche applications.
Public-private collaborations should be utilized to mobilize financial resources and technology to facilitate the R&D of innovative fuels and propulsion technologies. Policy interventions that classify maritime vessels as eligible assets for financing and loan guarantees for decarbonization technology installations should be expedited. Lessons can be drawn from commercial financing models that support advanced technologies in clean energy projects aimed at eliminating, reducing, or sequestering GHG emissions in the maritime industry. To achieve cost-competitiveness and prompt global acceptance of new sustainable fuels and related technologies, the engagement of local communities in developing these value chains is crucial.
Due to the scale, geographical spread, and complexity of global shipping, over 90 percent of the fleet continues to rely on conventional fossil fuels. It is also well recognized that the complete decarbonization of the sector is a multi-decade undertaking. Therefore, sound policy and investment decisions must be made now to mitigate uncertainties and accelerate the green transition within the maritime sector.
