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Underneath the auspices of the India Sensible Grid Discussion board, the suppose tank based as an umbrella group over India’s 28 state utilities to offer thought management, share main practices, and convey worldwide insights to India, I’m delivering bi-weekly webinars framed by the Brief Record of Local weather Actions That Will Work. With the glories of on-line recordings and AI transcription instruments, it’s comparatively straightforward to share each the transcript and the slides that I used, so I’m making a behavior of it.
Most lately, I delivered a chat and held a Q&A session overlaying my ideas on the decarbonization of trade, one thing thought of arduous to abate however which in actuality is simply considerably costly to abate. For many who want talk-talk to read-read, right here’s the recorded video of the presentation and dialogue:
Reji Pillai (RP): Good morning, good afternoon, good night to all of the members from around the globe and large welcome. Thanks to Michael for doing this collection with the ISGF. So immediately’s matter just isn’t my space of experience. I’m not going to delve something deep into it. You at all times hear about arduous to abate sectors, the commercial sectors that are arduous to abate from the emissions. So Michael shall be speaking about that. There are applied sciences, however at what price? And also you additionally hear so much about most of the new esoteric options and on hydrogen significantly we shall be doing a separate session through the collection, so there shall be about 15 of them, and that is the fifth one. And sorry about final fortnight we needed to miss as a result of I’ve been touring and the following one shall be on 4 July. So with none additional delay handing over to Michael.
Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks, Reji. Thanks, ISGF. As at all times, I’m privileged to be given the chance to help India, one of many nice nations on this planet to string the intersection of accelerating affluence and decreasing carbon emissions. It’s doable. I hold discovering different areas the place India is doing very nicely. I’ll discuss a type of immediately, however that doesn’t imply we are able to’t all do higher. So this session is about industrial processes. As was talked about, we’ve been coping with the place is the vitality coming from? How is it shifting round? How will we be sure we’ve got sufficient of it at totally different instances? And there are solutions for all these questions in earlier discussions. Please be happy to return on these. However this one is about what’s termed arduous to abate.
And it’s not likely all that onerous to abate. We simply should have the desire and discover the cash. We even have to cost carbon. So I’ll be speaking about this. I’ve comparatively few slides, however they’re fairly dense. So my apologies for that. Let’s undergo every certainly one of them pretty rigorously, and hopefully then on the finish, we’ll have lots of time for questions.
Okay, let’s begin with the large hitter. In industrial emissions, most of them come from burning fossil fuels, 65% to 75%. It’s simply course of warmth. It’s creating the warmth that we require for an entire bunch of different stuff. And as we transfer ahead, we’ve acquired an entire bunch of solutions. One in every of them is only a number of applied sciences throughout the underside, and I’ll discuss these.
However one other is the place proper now it’s least expensive to make use of a warmth primarily based course of sooner or later. As we transfer away from warmth, the query turns into, what different processes may we use that will truly cut back our vitality necessities? One of many issues I’ll say that’s not on the slide is electrochemical processes, on common, use about 50% of the vitality of warmth primarily based chemistry processes. You’ll be able to benchmark that with hydrogen, can benchmark that with just a few different issues, however that’s type of one thing to bear in mind. So our vitality necessities, as we shift to electrochemical options in lots of circumstances diminish considerably. It’s additionally price noting that we’re fairly inefficient in our use of warmth as a result of fossil fuels are so grime low-cost, so we simply type of burn extra fossil fuels at operational expense as an alternative of creating the processes extra environment friendly.
That is certainly one of Reji’s factors, a spot the place folks hold pondering hydrogen is required. One of many key items of inaccurate info that individuals appear to carry onto is that electrical energy isn’t good for top temperature warmth, and so we’ll want hydrogen. And that’s fully false. As I take a look at paperwork around the globe, one of many amusing issues I discover is in the identical large, like, 100 web page federal technique from america, in a single place they’ll say, and we use electrical arc furnaces for metal in temperatures of 1500 to 3000 levels. After which afterward they’ll say, and we want hydrogen for something over 200 levels Celsius warmth. It’s simply very straightforward for folks to have this odd concept that we are able to’t do it with electrical energy.
Not too long ago, I spent a while recording a podcast with Paul Martin, a chemical course of engineer with 30 odd years of constructing for purchasers globally, new modular chemical processing crops. Crops that require temperatures of all ranges. And he shared with me that in his dozens of crops for over 30 years, designing them, prototyping them, constructing trial ones, within the take a look at and trial phases, he had to make use of a flame precisely as soon as. There was one course of in over 30 years that truly wanted the traits of a flame, and every thing else was fully, adequately met by electrical energy.
As we type of undergo this, we now have 200 levels is an fascinating level. 40% to 45% of all industrial warmth is under 200 levels Celsius. And so which means what? Oh, warmth pumps are fully match for goal for 40% to 45% of commercial warmth necessities.
Meaning the effectivity of warmth pumps are there as nicely. As a reminder, one unit of electrical energy right into a warmth pump turns into three items of warmth. So for 45% of all industrial warmth, our vitality necessities are literally going to plummet by two thirds. That, as soon as once more, makes it a lot simpler to construct the renewables required to ship that vitality.
Infrared heating is one other. It’s one of many spectrum of the way we are able to ship warmth for various processes. All of us have seen infrared. There’s infrared saunas. However industrial processing, typically you want that radiant warmth, and we are able to ship it via electrical means.
That is truly a spot the place warmth storage turns into very strongly viable as nicely. Generally arduous to combine into an current plant, however very straightforward to construct into new crops. We’ve now acquired a number of warmth storage applied sciences. They’re low-cost. They mean you can shift the operational expense of vitality to low price night nights and early mornings, after which ship that vitality within the type of warmth, the place course of warmth is required through the day. Throughout operational issues, warmth storage doesn’t essentially work as nicely for twenty-four 7365. Industrial processes. However for something the place there’s a day shift and night time diminishment of exercise, you possibly can arbitrage electrical energy charges for warmth storage, for processes that require warmth. There may be one place that warmth storage tends to recover from its skis, and that’s that warmth storage just isn’t appropriate for storing electrical energy to be returned as electrical energy, simply just because the exergy losses signifies that when you put one thing into warmth storage and convey it again as electrical energy, you’re solely getting a couple of third of the electrical energy again. Not for that goal.
Nevertheless, I’ve been satisfied over time by numerous individuals who designed this stuff that when you want 95% warmth and 5% electrical energy, typically the most affordable means to offer the electrical energy is to make use of the warmth retailer and get inefficient electrical energy out of it. Anyone who has any warmth storage resolution which leads with electrical storage for return of electrical energy, take a look at them suspiciously. However there’s numerous nice ones on the market. Rondo out of america will get it proper. Sand, water bricks, carbon bricks, all types of applied sciences are there. They’re all quite simple. And to be clear, you will get warmth storage at a whole lot of levels as nicely.
Resistance heating, that is simply the identical stuff as you may have on an electrical range that isn’t an induction range. Electrical stoves merely, they only warmth up a coil like an previous incandescent mild bulb. Now we have warmth applied sciences as much as six to 700 levels Celsius with resistance heating. Kanthal, a northern European firm, offers that know-how to industrial websites globally. As soon as once more, resistance heating match for goal as much as a whole lot of levels Celsius.
Then we get into electromagnetic frequency heating, which incorporates induction heating. So lots of you most likely have induction stoves, they’re rather more frequent outdoors the west, which has a couple of bunch of fuel and different stoves. With induction stoves, we induce magnetic currents in ferrous supplies and get even larger heats of particular characters. We simply should design for them.
Subsequent is electrical arc heating, which I’ve talked about earlier than, as much as 3000 levels Celsius. We already use it globally for electrical arc furnaces. I’ll be speaking extra about these later. Nevertheless it’s additionally used for an entire bunch of different stuff. It’s simply totally doable to realize these sorts of temperatures required.
Then lastly we get to electrical plasma. Now, an electrical plasma is sort of a flame produced from electrical energy, if the flame is the temperature of the solar’s floor, as much as 10,000 levels Celsius, a strict cloud of highly regarded fuel created with electrical energy. That’s very helpful for an entire class of options. It may be arduous to work with, so it’s not trivial to make use of it, nevertheless it’s totally viable.
Generally we hear from industrial customers and from industrial warmth folks, however they’re not prepared commercially. And the reply there may be, it’s important to separate commercialization into two classes. Are they technically prepared? Are they accessible and accessible from business producers? And the reply for all of those applied sciences for that’s, sure, these are match for goal industrial options. The second is, are they generally used trade on the identical scale as burners of fossil fuels? And the reply isn’t any. We’re fully in a position to scale these applied sciences and ship these applied sciences on the scale wanted to fully electrify warmth. We simply haven’t but.
That will get to the query of why? Effectively, as a result of it’s less expensive to burn fossil fuels after we can use the ambiance as an open sewer. As quickly as we alter that dynamic via some mixture of carbon pricing and regulation, in order that it turns into costlier to make use of warmth from fossil fuels, then these all turn into price aggressive. In lots of circumstances, the fee competitiveness is kind of straightforward to realize. I discussed the warmth pumps. For those who’re utilizing a 3rd of the vitality to create the identical quantity of warmth with warmth pumps, then that’s a low hanging fruit state of affairs for trade. You recognize, that they’re not doing. It’s merely reticence to undertake stuff that’s new.
There are challenges. To be clear, a few of these challenges are capital expenditure. Altering your course of means it’s important to spend a bunch of cash on new gear to get this working. Then there’s operational bills, grime low-cost fossil fuels, versus sometimes costlier electrical energy. That requires modifications.
Then there’s the cognitive ones. Lots of people in trade, what occurs is they are saying, okay, I’ve to decarbonize my industrial processes, and so they flip to their provider of gases or stable fuels, and so they say, hey, Sid, inform me, Sid, what are you going to present me to burn that’s low carbon, and that’s not the proper body. The proper body is, hey, Sid, and all different suppliers, together with electrical energy, what will present decarbonized vitality that I require for my industrial processes? It’s straightforward for folks to get caught in that house the place they suppose they want one thing to burn, when surely they don’t.
There are assertions from trade that these aren’t prepared for prime time, that they’re not appropriate for his or her course of. That’s false. Nevertheless it’s straightforward for them to listen to from their suppliers, like Sid, who sells pure fuel to industrial processes, oh, nicely, we’ve acquired you lined with blue hydrogen or renewable pure fuel, you’re lined. It’ll be nice and it’ll be low-cost. None of these issues are true. Renewable pure fuel shall be costlier, hydrogen shall be much more costly. Hydrogen brings its personal full set of capital and operational expense issues with it, in addition to, you understand, elevated dangers and stuff like that. In order I look throughout this house, I’ve been on the lookout for years for anyplace the place I couldn’t use electrical energy to unravel an industrial warmth drawback, and I’ve not discovered one. As I mentioned again to Paul Martin, 30 plus years of expertise constructing chemical processing crops, as soon as he had to make use of a flame.
This isn’t a tough drawback to unravel, and that’s 65% to 75% of commercial emissions. Now, to be clear, that’s lots of energy to ship and lots of vitality to ship to trade. In some circumstances, the place trade is situated now’s as a result of it’s handy to get fossil fuels. Sooner or later, new industrial sectors will find yourself being arrange the place it’s straightforward to get low-cost electrical energy from renewables. The outback of Australia, the place you’ve acquired numerous wind and many solar, and it’s straightforward to set that up. Some processes are going to start out evolving into totally different areas primarily based upon the place there’s numerous wind and photo voltaic, however that’s a transformational factor over time. And a few industries can’t transfer like you possibly can’t transfer cement. Cement is so large and heavy that it’s important to make it very native to the place you want it, so that you’re not going to maneuver that round. However I’ve solutions for cement. Okay, sufficient on warmth.
I discussed cement. So it is a chart of cement manufacturing from 1990 via the current. About 4.1 billion tons of cement have been manufactured final 12 months, and that’s about the identical as 2020. By the way in which, the curve is extremely steep. That curve is one we’ve seen with metal, it’s one we’ve seen with an entire bunch of different stuff. Since 1990, we’ve began manufacturing 4 instances as a lot cement globally. And cement’s an enormous local weather drawback. Each ton of cement comes with nearly a ton of carbon dioxide. Due to manufacturing, most of that comes from decomposing limestone into fast lime (calcium oxide) and carbon dioxide.
The great factor about decomposing that in a kiln is the waste is carbon dioxide and it simply goes up and it disappears into the ambiance. Clearly not an ideal resolution now that we perceive the issue. Nevertheless it’s additionally arduous to get round as we take into consideration limestone. It’s previous seabeds, mainly. All of the shellfish shells drifted all the way down to the underside over millennia. In tens of millions of years, some calcium carbonates, bicarbonates precipitated out of the water and drifted all the way down to the underside. After which that was compressed after which was lifted up. As a result of it’s previous seabeds, limestone is offered just about in all places on earth, fairly conveniently, in layers doubtlessly a whole lot of meters thick and tens or a whole lot of kilometers lengthy and huge.
It’s underneath lots of the bottom on each continent, which signifies that if we want it it’s straightforward to seek out as a result of it’s a sedimentary rock. It’s not that onerous, so it’s pretty straightforward to quarry. As a result of it’s a rock the quarry’s partitions keep upright, which is sweet. You don’t should shore up the partitions significantly. After which decomposing it requires 900 levels Celsius warmth. Again to the warmth drawback. Now, this cement decarbonization is fascinating as a result of it is a place the place the emissions from the method warmth are overwhelmed by course of emissions from limestone. Bear in mind, limestone turns into lime and carbon dioxide. That carbon dioxide is so much. It’s very arduous to get round that.
Manufacturing cement might be eight to 10% of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions. Extra when you depend using pure fuel with its methane leakage, which we’ve been specializing in so much lately. You’ll discover this blue curve right here. This curve is my projection of the equal of that billions of tons, metric tons of cement. Once I say the equal, I imply we’re going to exchange cement with different options. In lots of circumstances, these options are decrease mass for a similar end result. What which means is this isn’t going to have so as to add as much as billions of tons in the identical means.
The second factor that’s vital is that is diminishing. The query to ask is why is that this curve diminishing in my perspective, and it’s for just a few causes. Most of this development from 1990 to 2020 was China. China manufactured 2.1 billion tons of the 4.1 billion tons of cement manufactured globally final 12 months. However China is approaching the tip of constructing the entire infrastructure and cities it requires for its 1.4 billion folks. And its inhabitants is flat. Its ghost cities at the moment are filling up, however they’re not full. It has considerably urbanized its inhabitants. It’s constructed 45,000 kilometers of excessive pace rail, 177,000 highways, cities for almost all of the inhabitants who will find yourself of their areas. It’s at 59% of shipbuilding globally, which suggests all of the shipyards, these large shipyards, are constructed. It constructed the Three Gorges Dam and lots of different dams. It has one main dam up within the mountains underneath development that dwarfs the Three Gorges.
The rapidity of development that’s tailing off. China will begin shifting into a rustic that’s not constructing practically as a lot infrastructure internally, so its cement demand and different calls for will diminish. On the identical time, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and the remainder of the creating world are going to extend their demand, however not on the charge that China did between 1990 and 2020, and to not the identical diploma. They’ll pull much more of the levers for decreasing and changing stuff. So this curve is the equal. However you’ll discover how quickly precise Portland cement (the white line), the first drawback, the stuff constructed from limestone, declines whereas this stuff, these curves on the backside, enhance slowly over time.
You’re truly the primary folks, viewers to see this. I completed this projection yesterday, and so that is the primary time I’ve spoken to it, nevertheless it’s been a very long time within the making. I spent the final month on concrete.
This curve is engineered timber. Engineered timber mainly cross laminates skinny sheets of ply just a few millimeters thick with epoxy, and turns them into engineered beams, hardwood flooring, and absolutely load bearing flooring, and full partitions. In buildings, you possibly can truly do a full mass timber development and exchange a lot of the concrete, solely requiring the inspiration to be made with concrete. It’s permitted as much as twelve tales in Canada and in Sweden they don’t have any restrict so long as the buildings are structurally sound.
They engineer timber beams to switch the load bearing constructions of bolstered concrete, and so they do it with a fifth the mass, as a result of engineered timber is a lot stronger than bolstered concrete. You truly exchange 5 instances as a lot cement and concrete with simply the engineered timber load bearing constructions. That’s why it is a large alternative for all of this. And it’s accessible in most components of the world proper now. We extract 3.5 billion wooden merchandise globally, and we waste lots of it on single use paper merchandise, that are higher in some methods than single use plastic merchandise, however inferior to multi use merchandise. My projection is we’ll find yourself displacing a whole lot of tens of millions of tons of present timber extraction and shift to extra sustainable timber extraction, and that can in flip displace 5 instances as a lot cement and concrete.
One different factor about engineered timber, you should use it in hybrid buildings the place the load bearing constructions are bolstered concrete, and the entire partitions and flooring are mass timber. With that, you’re nonetheless getting 50% concrete and cement financial savings. With a full mass timber resolution, you’re getting 70% to 80% concrete and cement financial savings, as a result of the inspiration remains to be bolstered concrete.
For now, geopolymers and epoxies are my subsequent large lever. Geopolymers, mainly we take proper now coal era fly ash and blast furnace slag. We grind them up and we combine them with alkaline substances and silicate substances. Potassium hydroxide and potassium silicates is certainly one of them, and sodium hydroxide and sodium silicates are one other. You combine them collectively and so they flip into an extended chain polymer, which in flip is stronger and higher than cement in some ways. You simply take the combination and you’re taking these geopolymer precursors, combine all of it collectively, you add the alkaline substances and the silicate substances, and it turns into this very stable factor with no cement. There’s no limestone concerned on this course of. And since we are able to truly use biomass ash, I’ve turn into extra bullish on this proper now. We’ve acquired lots of fly ash from coal crops globally. We’re nonetheless producing lots of it. Now we have lots of blast furnace slag and we’re nonetheless producing extra of it. Much less in, you understand, the west, extra within the creating world. I’ll discuss fairness in a minute.
However then there’s additionally copper slag, there’s additionally purple mud from aluminum, after which there’s additionally biomass. One factor that India is doing, which could be very fascinating, is rice hulk ash. India is a pacesetter in utilizing biomass from agricultural waste, from rice manufacturing, from the paddies, to burn it beneath clay brick kilns. And so then you find yourself with this rice hulk ash, which can be utilized in geopolymers. Rice hulk ash is excessive within the silicates which are essential for the creation of the lengthy chain polymers that include geopolymers.
Epoxies are constructed from oil. They’re a petrochemical, they’re costlier. However as soon as once more, you understand, utilizing petrochemicals is okay so long as you’re not burning them. And if we flip some oil into some glue and use that to displace cement, that’s a way more virtuous cycle than others.
So these, by the way in which, the engineered timber, large quantity of that accessible within the creating world. Extra within the creating world in lots of circumstances, than within the developed world. Geopolymers and epoxies, tremendously accessible sources between waste from blast furnaces and coal crops, and rice hulk ash. As famous, it’s strongly accessible within the creating world as nicely.
Subsequent is efficiencies of supplies and software program. One of many key issues is that if we take, for instance, carbon fiber and use that with Portland cement as an alternative of, or in a slight addition to the bolstered metal, what we are able to do is get a a lot stronger concrete course of with so much much less concrete and cement bolstered. So carbon fiber bolstered concrete is definitely a lot lighter and thinner for a similar structural properties. And that’s truly one thing that may be designed in.
Equally, we’ve acquired replacements for metal mesh in concrete. Strengthened concrete slabs with fiberglass, and fiberglass and carbon fiber are issues that may be decarbonized. They allow us to do sure courses of issues with concrete which are simpler and cheaper in course of views.
The software program is software program that everyone within the developed world can use. It’s all accessible stuff. Finite ingredient evaluation and generative structure. As I say, there aren’t any flies on the engineers and designers within the creating world. They’ve the instruments to do stuff so much higher and extra effectively than america and China did from 1990 to 2020. So, because the ramp up happens within the creating world of infrastructure, the supplies use shall be rather more environment friendly due to the software program instruments which are accessible, and lots of extra excessive tech supplies shall be used to cut back the general infrastructure construct.
Constructing renovation is the following one, as we’ve got constructed so many buildings. Let’s take China for instance. As they constructed so many buildings and they aren’t growing their inhabitants, the query turns into, do they tear down and exchange a constructing, or do they only repurpose it within the first world, proper now, simply take a look at Calgary, for instance. Calgary is the capital of the oil sands in Canada, and so they constructed lots of buildings for an entire bunch of corporations that have been oil sands extraction corporations. Effectively, and now that trade is compressing and consolidating. And so there’s all these workplace buildings which are untenanted. In Calgary, final time I had a depend, there have been 19 workplace buildings. There have been typically 20 and 30 tales that had no person in them as a result of there have been solely a handful of head workplaces left after the consolidation. And so they’d automated a lot stuff, not doing practically as a lot exploration.
So now Calgary is popping them into housing. It’s changing an current constructing into condos and residences. That turns into a reuse course of within the constructing renovation and reuse universe. They are saying the bottom carbon constructing is the one which’s already constructed. We’ll be doing much more of that over the approaching a long time as an alternative of tearing down stuff and constructing new stuff. That’ll assist.
Then there’s lime useful resource alternative cement. There’s type of two points to this. One is there are processes on the market that may take current concrete and get the cement out of them that’s already emitted all of its CO2 after which reactivate it in an identical option to the way in which that limestone is processed, after which return new cement from recycled concrete. So I count on that one to take action.
After which there’s lime bearing rocks like basalt, dacite and diabase, which have so much much less lime than limestone. Limestone starting with lime is type of a clue as to the ratio. It’s 56% lime, 44% CO2. However for some circumstances we’re going to have the ability to say, oh, on this case it’s least expensive, not many circumstances, to make use of basalt as a result of we’ve got an enormous supply of basalt right here and an enormous quarry, and we’ll simply settle for that we’re going to get much more waste rock, which we’ll discover some makes use of for in some circumstances, and a few costlier cement. Nevertheless it’ll be low carbon as a result of basalt diabase and dacite website don’t have carbon. In order they decompose into lime, which is helpful for cement, and a few silicate rocks, which we are able to use in some methods for supplementary cementitious materials.
Lastly down on the backside right here, carbon seize and sequestration. I simply completed the evaluation of carbon seize just a few days in the past, which shall be essential to have the ability to do that in maybe 5%. It can make financial sense to affect the warmth or cement after which seize the comparatively pure CO2 stream carbon dioxide stream from the cement kiln and put it someplace. Not for the complete factor, although, as a result of we don’t actually have infrastructure to place away 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide. When a cement plant, however, is true beside a sequestration website, an electrical warmth is used. So it’s fairly pure carbon dioxide that’s popping out, it’s going to most likely make sense to shove the carbon dioxide so long as the sequestration website is sweet for many years of output of the cement plant. In that case, it’ll most likely pencil out.
However in any other case, all these different choices, avoiding cement totally with engineered hardwood shifting, avoiding cement with geopolymers and epoxies. Avoiding cement with new supplies and software program instruments. Avoiding cement by reusing buildings we’re already utilizing, and avoiding new cement by lime replacements. These all make higher financial sense. And in order that’s type of the story for cement decarbonization. This line is indicative of the decarbonization curve. So it’s a excellent news story. That is totally viable with applied sciences we’ve got in hand immediately.
That is one other chart I simply developed lately. That is about metal, as a result of we’re pivoting to a different main industrial matter. This one simply says, take a look at the West, United States and Europe, and their large a long time lengthy metal manufacturing, after which the decline. This curve is China since 2000 and India on the backside. Now China goes to pivot. One of many large fairness questions is, how can the west say to the creating world, don’t do what we did? And from 1980 to 2020, China has made itself extremely prosperous. India is making itself fairly remarkably prosperous with out practically as a lot metal as China. About 90 kilograms per capita proper now, nonetheless nicely under the west. Effectively, all these issues I talked about, the decline, cut back the quantity of cement we require, may also cut back the quantity of metal that’s required.
And so lots of the replacements now with fashionable applied sciences, that are simpler to decarbonize, and decarbonization of metal itself, make this fairness chart a way more palatable story for the way to keep away from doing this large hump within the center and the way to keep away from doing what China ended up doing. For essentially the most half, India goes to develop extra. China goes to pivot as a result of it’s completed with its infrastructure, which is a large client of metal. It’s nonetheless going to be constructing numerous ships, automobiles and stuff. So it wants metal for that, however so much much less. After which India just isn’t an export financial system. It’s rather more of a home manufacturing financial system.
Brazil, Africa and Indonesia shall be behind India and aren’t going to be constructing the identical diploma, the identical scale of infrastructure as rapidly and won’t be constructing the manufacturing capability that China constructed as a result of it’s pointless in a world the place inhabitants peaks between 2050 and 2070. So there’s a excellent news tales by way of some of these items, however folks within the west don’t actually love this chart as a result of it’s a century of us emitting carbon.
Okay, so that is the metal story. This one I did a 12 months and a half, two years in the past, I feel my first model. So there’s one other nice information story. So that is what number of? 2 billion tons of metal. 1990, we’re underneath a billion tons. So we’ve doubled it in that time period. As soon as once more, that steep curve was largely China. China proper now as soon as once more produces half the metal manufactured on this planet. In 1980, america and Japan have been the 2 largest producers and customers of metal. Now they’re third and fourth. India is now the second largest producer of metal, after China. India is barely manufacturing a tenth of the metal that China is. In order that peak that’s going to gradual considerably as a result of lots of that metal goes to infrastructure.
As famous, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Africa shall be accelerating their metal demand. However we’ve got some instruments there as nicely. It’s a a lot easier story, fortunately, than cement. As we take a look at this, I’ll simply begin with there’s new metal after which there’s scrap metal. Now, proper now, america has 71% of its metal demand met by scrapping metal in electrical arc furnaces. They’re not excellent, they use pure fuel from preheating. However that’s electrifiable. And that’s prone to be the place the vary that everyone strikes into over time. As we get to the tip sport, I count on 75% of demand shall be met as we scrap metal, home equipment, automobiles, pipelines, refineries, oil tankers, and switch that into merchandise, that are infrastructure merchandise and client merchandise, after which feed that cycle, which nonetheless means we want 25% new metal.
And word that 25% just isn’t that a lot under complete demand in 1980. However we’ve got a number of applied sciences for that as nicely. That is all blast furnace and open fireplace furnace. However down right here within the direct discount stuff, we have already got Midrex and ArcelorMittal syngas DRI applied sciences, the place biomethane artificial gases can be utilized to cut back iron into iron ore or cut back iron ore into iron, mainly de rusting it. We are able to try this with organic sources of methane. That’s additionally amenable to that hydrogen course of that Hybrit has been doing. There’s additionally the molten oxide electrolysis course of. So we’ve got three totally different decarbonization applied sciences. For metal, biomethane syngas is commercialized and accessible immediately. It’s only a bit costlier. Hydrogen is commercialized and accessible immediately. Molten oxide electrolysis is the one one which isn’t a business product but. However there’s a number of folks engaged on it, and the provenance could be very robust. I’m unsure which certainly one of these will dominate. It’s going to be fascinating to see which one will dominate, however I’m comfy that metal is definitely a really solvable drawback. As soon as once more, course of warmth from electrical energy. And we’re speaking about what shall be used for the chemical means of discount of iron ore to iron, not the warmth requirement. Okay, Reji talked about hydrogen.
I’ll simply point out some industrial locations which are large sources of emissions immediately. So this field is all using hydrogen in refining crude oil. It’s used for hydro cracking, which is popping heavy oils into lighter variants. And it’s used for hydro treating, desulfurization, which takes impurities out of the crude oils, like sulfur. Alberta’s and Venezuela’s merchandise are heavy bitter crudes. They’ve numerous bitumen, numerous sulfur. That’s the place most hydrogen is used. As we transfer ahead with the discount with peak oil demand, which is throughout this decade, in line with the Worldwide Power Company, the primary crudes that shall be off the market would be the heavy bitter crudes.
It’s not excellent news for the industries and governments of Venezuela and Canada by way of that portion of their financial system, however why would folks pay extra when the world is awash with mild candy oil that’s near water and low-cost to get? In order we transfer ahead, the heavy bitter cruise shall be off. And the hydrogen demand, which is a full third of hydrogen demand immediately, will go away. And all of the emissions from that hydrogen demand will go away.
Equally for ammonia fertilizers, proper now we make them from coal fuel and pure fuel. We strip the hydrogen out and we put the hydrogen into the Haber-Bosch course of to make ammonia, which we mix with numerous issues to make fertilizer, which is important. However we’ve got lots of levers, which I gained’t discuss at size to cut back this. Precision agriculture, low tillage agriculture, some organic processes. My projection has us diminishing the quantity of fertilizer we require.
And naturally, we’re going to be offering hydrogen for that with inexperienced electrical energy. All quite simple applied sciences. all very nicely commercialized immediately. This isn’t rocket science. It’s only a bit costlier, and a few of it’s a lot cheaper. Utilizing drone primarily based seeding and spraying is so much cheaper with higher crop outputs.
Okay, final slide. Different industries. So aluminum, two to three% of worldwide emissions. That’s as a result of we use carbon anodes, which get consumed and switch into carbon dioxide. Once we use that electrochemical course of with aluminum, with bauxite ore and different issues, the alumina that comes from bauxite ore, that we flip into aluminum, and we’ve acquired inert anodes that don’t get consumed or that in the event that they do get consumed, don’t flip into carbon dioxide. We’ve acquired an answer for this. This isn’t rocket science.
It’s simply as soon as once more a bit costlier as a result of proper now we make carbon anodes, in lots of circumstances from resid, the stuff that’s in asphalt on roads, and the stuff we used to burn in marine transport engines is simply one other waste stream they pushed over to right here. Most of that resid comes from these heavy bitter crudes that are going away. So we’re going to have that variance.
Pulp and paper, that’s 70% vitality. So 70% vitality, clearly electrification, however we’re additionally going to as soon as once more divert single use to mass timber. So which means we find yourself with a virtuous factor. Oh, one thing I forgot to say about mass timber. Each ton of mass timber is way decrease emissions than concrete, clearly, nevertheless it additionally, each ton of mass timber additionally sequesters a ton of carbon dioxide drawn from the ambiance for many years. After which at finish of life we’ve got a number of, I’ve counted 5 methods thus far to completely sequester that. So we divert single use to mass timber that takes carbon that was within the ambiance, sequesters it for many years, after which we completely sequester it after that. It makes buildings carbon unfavourable.
For glass electrification within the large requirement, after which there’s a handful of simple course of modifications we already know for the method emissions. We’re not doing them immediately as a result of as soon as once more we’re treating the ambiance as an open sewer and it’s unpriced. 80% of that’s vitality, and recycling and electrification are large about that.
A bunch of lime is used there, and there are alternate options to limes like magnesium oxides and aluminum oxides, which suggests we don’t have to make use of limestone for that. It’s simply low-cost proper now. After which we’ve got limestone alternate options. That is place presumably the place basalt diabase and dacite may be used extra.
There’s nitric acid, which is utilized in fertilizer. It produces lots of nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide, N2O, has 273 instances the worldwide warming potential of carbon dioxide. It’s an enormous deal. As we cut back our use of ammonia primarily based fertilizers, we cut back our requirement for nitric acid for them. After which there’s a handful of current course of modifications already recognized to take care of that. It is a solvable drawback.
Now we have the applied sciences and options. It’s truly not that onerous to abate. We simply have to cost carbon and produce the quantity of vitality required and alter a few of our processes.
That’s type of the tip of my dialogue. We did find yourself taking a little bit longer there. I’m not stunned, as a result of I mentioned the slides have been dense, and certainly one of them was the primary time I spoke to it. So we’ve got time for questions.
RP: The viewers, those that undergo it. Anybody has any questions, please put up it on the group within the chat field. There may be one query from our good friend Rish, which is on the display screen. Over to you, Michael. However strictly talking, information facilities don’t come underneath the worldwide processes. That is nonetheless underneath the buildings group. However anyway, it is a very quick rising space, which is consuming tens of 1000’s of megawatts yearly in lots of locations.
MB: I’ll reply this as a result of I’ve been irritated by this present spherical of hysteria about information heart vitality use. I did the mathematics for america. If we take transportation and trade, information facilities are 1.3% of the vitality necessities of transportation and trade. And information facilities are nearly very robust consumers of inexperienced electrical energy. The vitality for transportation and trade is all fossil fuels, that are creating the local weather drawback. And the very large information heart use is electrical energy. Now we have to affect every thing.
And one of many large solutions for local weather options is digitalization as we contemplate a few of these issues. I did a 151 web page report, an evaluation globally in machine studying and all of the methods it’s being utilized in clear applied sciences in 2020. (Attain out to me if you need a duplicate of it.) If we take materials science for photo voltaic panels. Now, most materials science is utilizing machine studying to seek out excessive effectivity intersection factors inside complicated materials areas to allow us to do a lot much less testing to get larger effectivity and outcomes. Just about all materials science these days features a large stream of machine studying and AI, and that’s decarbonizing nice swaths of our trade.
Folks fear about this. I did the mathematics as a result of I take advantage of ChatGPT and DALL-E from OpenAI to generate pictures. I decided that it was round 0.4 grams of carbon dioxide per picture between all the educational and the precise execution of the factor. So 0.4 grams, that’s about 21 grams for a cup of espresso.
The second piece of context is that was with the previous chips. NVIDIA simply launched a chip that could be a graphic processing unit upon which all these things operates, which is 25 instances extra energy environment friendly. So take that 0.4 grams and divide by 25. Knowledge facilities have been a robust demand sector for inexperienced electrical energy, creating markets for renewables. They signed energy buy agreements in all of the developed world, and in a lot of the creating world as nicely, for the vitality they require.
The hysteria is misplaced. The dimensions of the issue is way decrease. They aren’t the issue. And so I at all times ask the query on this one. Who advantages by pointing fingers at information facilities? Might or not it’s transportation trade and the fossil gasoline trade which provides all of their vitality? I don’t know.
It simply appeared a little bit apparent to me. I do know that I’ve been monitoring this hysteria for many years. It first emerged within the Nineteen Eighties with e-mail use. At one level, folks have been claiming that emails had monumental carbon money owed. After which within the mid nineties, it was information facilities half one. After which within the late nineties, it was one thing else. After which in late, in mid to late two 1000’s, it was AI half one. The primary hysteria about coaching AI fashions occurred. Then in late 2020, there was one other burst of it as a result of an MIT examine got here up. It was fairly exceptional. That is simply the newest spherical of it. It’s a distraction. Getting apprehensive about information heart demand for electrical energy is a distraction from the true issues. It’s largely a regional drawback.
By way of the Pacific Northwest, United States, they aren’t constructing sufficient transmission, storage and electrical era. And so will increase there are taking electrical energy away from different locations. However that’s as a result of they’re not doing their job of constructing numerous electrical energy, constructing lots of transmission, constructing lots of storage.
RP: Utilities, electrical utilities love information facilities as a result of it’s a relentless load, nearly 24 7365 days fixed load. So they only love them. It’s an ideal income. There may be one other query Raj is asking the way to keep away from industries adopting inexperienced vitality for his or her vitality demand. That is really decarbonize the trade because the emission nonetheless stays as excessive as it will have been. Whereas it relies on the inexperienced vitality they use, whether it is renewable vitality, it’s not. No emission. It relies upon what are they changing the fossil gasoline with? So whether it is among the fuels that are produced by consuming renewable vitality, however it’s a number of instances greater than the common vitality, then its query mark. Over to you, Michael, you might wish to take that.
MB: Yeah. 65% to 70% of the emissions from trade are for vitality from burning fossil fuels. So by changing to electrical energy or in some circumstances renewable pure fuel, which is a bit shaky by way of an vitality supply for a wide range of causes, they’re decreasing their emissions. Now for cement, a lot of the emissions come from the limestone, not from the vitality. And in order that’s a case the place in the event that they’re simply electrifying the limestone kiln and doing nothing else, they’re not reaching majority carbon dioxide discount. However I’ve simply gone via all the answer areas, all the method issues have options. The entire vitality areas can electrify with renewables. This isn’t truly arduous to abate. We’re simply refusing to do the work as a result of it’s a bit costlier. So we’ve got to push for that.
Carbon pricing is an enormous one and an enormous lever that’s going to dominate this house. Europe, 13 states in america, Canada and China all have carbon costs. I’ll assert once more, India just isn’t in that checklist and needs to be. So reassert that. India ought to begin placing a value in carbon as a result of it’s an enormous straightforward option to transfer the needle on a bunch of this stuff.
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