From pv journal 06/24
The outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine was a wake-up name for the Baltic nations, signaling the pressing want for adjustments to power insurance policies.
“The power disaster following the aggression of the Russian Federation towards Ukraine in 2022 for positive had an influence on all neighboring international locations,” Andres Meesak, good power options lead at Estonian regional distribution system operator (DSO) Viru Elektrivõrgud, informed pv journal.
The Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have discovered an amazing deal from the unlucky expertise of Ukraine as they need to additionally stay within the shadow of its belligerent japanese neighbor.
“The primary constructive influence has been understanding the risk to power infrastructure and utilizing power and power infrastructure as a hybrid weapon towards societies by the aggressor,” Meesak mentioned. “The battle compelled the international locations to hurry up separation from power cooperation [with the Russian Federation] of any form – frequency stability, gas provide, electrical energy transit.”
Circuit breakers
Most European international locations was once considerably depending on Russia for power however, for the Baltic nations, this concern has a distinct dimension. The three international locations stay a part of the Soviet-era “BRELL” circuit, with Russia and Belarus, counting on Russian operators to regulate frequency and steadiness provide and demand.
In 2018, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia hammered out a plan to decouple from BRELL and be a part of the EU energy grid by late 2025. The occasions in Ukraine compelled the international locations to rethink the timeframe and velocity up the transition. Different steps are additionally wanted to enhance the safety of their power grid.
“The battle towards Ukraine demonstrated clearly the weaknesses of centralized power provide in comparison with distributed technology in smaller models,” Meesak mentioned, suggesting that it impacted society in any respect ranges, from households to high authorities officers.
Along with the political rationale, Baltic traders acquired sturdy financial incentives to spend money on solar energy as power prices within the area went by way of the roof. On the peak of the 2022 European power disaster, electrical energy customers noticed their payments rise practically sevenfold, in contrast with the earlier 12 months.
In opposition to this background, the years 2022 to 2024 have seen solar energy technology development throughout the Baltic area beat even essentially the most optimistic forecasts.
The uptake of PV has actually taken off in Estonia. Mihkel Annus, chairman of the Estonian Renewable Power Chamber, mentioned that put in capability has doubled annually. In solely 5 years, as of the top of 2023, whole put in photo voltaic capability stood at 812 MW, up from 39.6 MW in 2018.
Lithuania exceeded its 2025 goal for solar energy technology, of 1.2 GW, in 2023, in response to knowledge from the Lithuanian Power Company (LEA). The nation has welcomed practically 300 MW of latest capability over the previous couple of years.
In Latvia, roughly 300 MW of photo voltaic capability was put in as of January 2024, mentioned Anna Rozīte, head of enterprise growth for AJ Energy Group. This determine has roughly tripled since Might 2023 alone.
Solar energy loved an funding growth in Latvia and different Baltic international locations as market gamers primarily opted for options that could possibly be applied as rapidly as attainable.
“Photo voltaic panel installations most likely are the quickest tasks, from an implementation standpoint, together with the comparatively brief interval for technical design stage and allowing, in addition to the provision of obligatory tools,” Rozīte defined.
Upward development
Market gamers consider the expansion skilled to date would possibly solely be the prelude to an actual Baltic photo voltaic growth within the coming years. The PV potential of the Baltic nations is estimated at 40 GW, mentioned Rachel Andalaft, managing director of REA Seek the advice of. She added that the inexperienced power sector within the Baltic international locations is predicted to draw €150 billion ($162 billion) of funding alternatives within the subsequent 20 to 25 years.
It’s anticipated that photo voltaic business growth will likely be accompanied by the deployment and integration of battery power storage techniques (BESS), enhancement of interconnections with different European international locations, and the mandatory emergence of a marketplace for energy buy agreements (PPAs) to the advantage of a decentralized technology panorama, mentioned Andalaft. And there’s already a big quantity of capability within the pipeline.
Based mostly on official knowledge from Elering AS, the nationwide transmission system operator (TSO), practically 3.5 TWh of photo voltaic power manufacturing are resulting from be added to the Estonian power combine by way of 2026. Native market gamers indicated that this might probably cowl half of Estonia’s annual electrical energy consumption. Nonetheless, a variety of massive tasks from 2022 haven’t gone stay but. The commissioning of solar energy crops can take so long as two years, for tasks with as much as 15 MW of capability, to attach on the DSO degree, and greater than three years for tasks above 15 MW to attach on the TSO degree, mentioned Gatis Macans, government director of the Latvian Photo voltaic Power Affiliation.
“After the renewable hype in 2022, when there was excessive competitors to ebook grid capability, in 2023 we began to see newly constructed solar energy crops primarily linked to the distribution grid with capability as much as 15 MW. Nonetheless, a lot bigger PV tasks are below growth and we hope to see just a few commissioned tasks within the nearest two years,” Macans mentioned.
Fashionable content material
“[In 2024 and 2025], at the very least two to 5 occasions extra solar energy parks ought to be constructed [in Lithuania] than had been inbuilt your entire interval till then,” mentioned Tomas Janususkia, affiliate accomplice with Widen, a Vilnius-based regulation agency.
The photo voltaic frenzy is seen at each degree of the financial system. Customers put in twice as a lot residential photo voltaic in 2022 alone as in your entire interval earlier than that, Janususkia mentioned, including that households in Lithuania are eligible for state help on photo voltaic installations as much as 10 kW in measurement, whereas for business, the determine is about at 500 kW. Streamlining rules for renewables technology installations has additionally had an impact.
“The present authorized regulation has mainly simplified the development of solar energy crops,” Janususkia mentioned. “It doesn’t require both spatial planning paperwork, environmental influence evaluation – aside from distinctive circumstances – or land-use change. The launched mannequin of the hybrid energy plant, along with wind energy crops or accumulators, considerably facilitated and made using electrical energy networks and masses extra environment friendly.”
Overcoming obstacles
Regardless of progress, challenges for the Baltic photo voltaic business stay. A number of elements might jeopardize additional capability development, primarily fears that having a lot solar energy within the power combine could also be tough.
“The problem [for Estonia] is now to suit manufacturing to demand,” mentioned Meesak. BESS might play a key position, he claimed, including that the business can see how various renewable power parks have grown in significance, with photo voltaic, wind, and storage complementing one another.
“Though in 2024 we will count on to have a number of hours the place photo voltaic power output exceeds the whole electrical energy demand in Estonia, it’s nonetheless an unrealistic expectation to say that, in 2026, at the very least 50% of demand will likely be lined by photo voltaic, resulting from comparatively low-capacity issue [actual output versus the theoretical maximum] and elevated electrical energy demand in darker and colder winter months,” Annus mentioned. In consequence, the daytime spot costs throughout sunny hours are decrease and extra risky, he added.
The utmost winter consumption in Estonia is about 1.6 GW. Stakeholders are including battery storage to their techniques or optimizing the positioning of panels to extend the seize worth from the market. Meesak mentioned that reducing battery storage prices motivated households to put in extra hybrid photo voltaic techniques with native storage, providing some autonomy in case of energy cuts.
“The day by day demand-supply curve reveals potential for inexpensive four- to six-hour native storage – the market worth for electrical energy is highest throughout night hours, proper after PV crops fade out, as much as about midnight. To even out the provision and demand, and thru that additionally the market worth, four- to six-hour storage at affordable value is required,” Meesak mentioned.
REA Seek the advice of’s Andalaft mentioned she agreed that “storage services are completely essential to broaden the penetration fee of renewables whereas retaining grid stability, on one facet, and enabling new operational modes on the opposite.” Andalaft additionally believes there are different points that should be tackled to make sure photo voltaic business development in the long term.
“Demand follows insurance policies,” she mentioned. “Within the pandemic interval, we noticed peak costs each in [capital expenditure] and in electrical energy. The market right now remains to be coping with the aftermath of this. If, throughout the pandemic, the deployment suffered delay and constraints, right now the dearth of a dynamic PPA market is limiting funding urge for food and holding again the potential for a various and private-equity pushed, aggressive power panorama.”
In Lithuania, photo voltaic business growth has additionally confronted some surprising bureaucratic obstacles.
Janususkia defined that below the power communities mannequin launched within the nation, customers, power communities, and enormous electrical energy producers should connect with restricted power infrastructure networks concurrently. For that reason, quotas have been assigned to community capability.
“This resulted in a sequence of authorized disputes over grid energy shortages for energy producers, performing as a brake on photo voltaic funding,” defined Widen’s Janususkia. “At present, these points have been partially resolved however the depth of funding has decreased considerably and the out there tasks in the marketplace are usually not in a rush to be applied.”
Regardless of these challenges, market gamers say that they continue to be assured that nothing can derail the photo voltaic business’s development within the Baltic area within the foreseeable future.
By Ian Skarytovsky
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