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Last Modified on: 18th April 2025, 12:13 pm
If you have feared that the pathway to renewable energy in the US might come to a standstill under the corrupt Trump administration, your concerns are indeed valid. However, there is a glimmer of hope. A range of newly published analyses reveals that although the transition to renewable energy in the US is likely to decelerate, the established forces are too robust to halt it entirely.
Renewable energy, frequently termed as clean energy, originates from natural resources or processes that are consistently replenished. The global movement towards renewable energy sources is not merely a passing trend. The journey toward renewable energy is guiding us toward innovative methods of generating and consuming energy, offering a cleaner, more sustainable substitute for fossil fuels.
The Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025) examines prospective long-term energy trajectories in the US. This report is produced by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as part of its duty to prepare an annual document that encapsulates trends and forecasts of energy usage and supply. The Bloomberg NEF New Energy Outlook 2025 indicates that strong underlying factors support the growth of renewables and electric vehicles (EVs).
The consensus from both publications predicts an increase in renewable electricity generation, even in scenarios where Trump’s agenda for deregulation succeeds. Both forecasts a decline in coal, natural gas, and oil consumption over the next decades, as renewable energy production increases and more individuals turn to electricity to power their vehicles and heat their residences. Overall US electricity demand is anticipated to escalate by approximately 50% by 2050, aligned with forecasts for rising electricity needs due to expanding artificial intelligence and data center initiatives.
Trump Stumbles Out of the Energy Gate with IRA Cuts
The Trump administration has vowed to abolish the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). In one of its initial executive actions, titled Unleashing American Energy, the administration immediately halted all IRA funds. Some of that funding has since been released, such as the US Department of Agriculture’s Rural Energy for America Program (REAP). Potential funding recipients have been cautioned to remove language that invokes “Biden-era DEIA (diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility) and climate mandates integrated into prior proposals.”
Joseph DeCarolis, the EIA administrator under former President Joe Biden, stated in a discussion, “It’s quite apparent that electricity demand is on the rise and a greater number of end-use needs are being satisfied with electricity. Much of that was encouraged by the Inflation Reduction Act.”
The AEO2025 report also tracks heightened electrification following the Inflation Reduction Act, the 2022 climate legislation that allocated billions of dollars in tax credits and grants for new clean energy systems. A noteworthy success of the IRA through tax incentives includes solar farms, which represent the most economical source of new power generation. Both domestic and foreign investors are eager to invest in new solar initiatives in the US. In fact, globally, last year, 92.5% of new power capacity originated from renewables, with 77.3% of that from solar.
Reversing the IRA could cost state economies billions, lead to a loss of thousands of jobs, and elevate energy expenses for consumers. This conclusion stems from a report by the nonpartisan energy and climate policy think tank, Energy Innovation. A full repeal of the IRA would have profound consequences by 2035; it would:
- reduce GDP by $250 billion;
- lead to 1.3 million fewer jobs;
- impose an additional $35 billion on households due to increased energy spending, or $240 per household;
- affect over $520 billion in new clean investments; and,
- eliminate more than 334,000 new jobs created in the two years following the law’s enactment.
Investments in large-scale clean energy projects last month dipped to their lowest point since the enactment of transformative clean energy tax credits, amidst a rise in project cancellations and growing market uncertainty as Congress begins discussions on repealing the tax credits and other incentives.
A federal judge has instructed the Environmental Protection Agency to cease “illegally suspending or terminating” $20 billion in climate grants, prompting the agency to appeal the order. Another federal judge has temporarily blocked the Department of Energy’s plans to retract $405 million in annual research funds from universities. A third federal judge directed the Trump administration to promptly resume disbursing funds from the 2022 IRA climate law and the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
The “Make America Pollute Again” Campaign
The EAI is an offshoot of the Department of Energy, and the US Department of Energy was not pleased with its own agency’s findings, highlighting contradictions from the Trump administration. “Today’s report from EIA reflects the catastrophic trajectory for American energy production under the Biden administration — a path that was decisively rejected by the American populace last November,” DOE spokesperson Andrea Woods stated. “By unleashing energy that is affordable, reliable, and secure, this administration is ensuring America’s future is characterized by energy growth and abundance — not scarcity.”
Despite the interest from foreign investors in exploring renewable energy prospects in the US, on April 8, Trump issued another directive aimed at forcibly reintroducing more coal into the nation’s electricity generation landscape. The Associated Press reported the story under the title, “Trump signs executive orders to promote coal, a dependable but polluting energy source.”
While the US is boosting its manufacturing capabilities for lithium-ion batteries, China remains the primary supplier to the US market, and the prices of those batteries are expected to surge with the latest round of tariffs. In essence, the US has now diminished its manufacturing prowess instead of enhancing it. The proposed Trump administration promise of new coal-fired generating plants that will soon be introduced neglects to acknowledge that the timeline from planning and permitting to construction and activation spans 5 to 7 years. Oops!
The Trump administration is carrying out the agenda of Big Oil to undermine clean energy production. For instance, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is attempting to halt a New York offshore wind farm that is already in development. Burgum announced on X that he wants the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to “immediately stop all construction activities on the Empire Wind Project pending further examination of information suggesting the Biden administration hastily approved it without adequate analysis.”
Empire Wind would supply power to half a million homes on the New York City electrical grid. The endeavor to reverse it will portray the Trump administration as even more ineffective.
Meanwhile, private sector investment continues, though the turmoil instigated by the Trump administration regarding US energy policy has undeniably affected it. The organization E2 monitors significant clean energy projects across the US, and their most recent monthly report highlights a pronounced decline, indicating that the pathway to renewable energy sources appears much longer than it did just a year ago.
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