Europe’s largest vertically built-in module producer is predicated in Türkiye. The continent’s largest photo voltaic array, the 1.35 GW Kalyon Karapinar PV energy plant, can be discovered there. This didn’t occur accidentally.
It’s a pivotal time for photo voltaic in Türkiye. Within the first two months of 2024, the nation added 1.1 GW of recent technology capability, equal to round half of its PV set up whole for 2023. And as pv journal found at SolarEX 2024, a three-day commerce honest in Istanbul in April 2024, the variety of home module meeting companies has ballooned. Completely different numbers had been mentioned on the exhibition ground however the normal consensus was that there are at the least 80, and sure greater than 90, Turkish module assemblers.
What’s behind the increase? Installations are trending in the precise course however not at a tempo that may assist such a swell in manufacturing capability. Supportive industrial coverage and punitive import boundaries supply an evidence, at the least partially.
Doubling down
Understanding the Turkish photo voltaic market means attending to grips with the raft of protectionist measures now in place. Whereas photo voltaic stakeholders within the European Union proceed to debate the precise response to ultra-low pricing of Chinese language modules, Türkiye has spent the final seven years ratcheting up its antidumping measures and piling on friction on the border.
In 2017, the federal government unveiled an inventory of 16 China-based PV producers whose imported modules can be subjected to $20/m2 antidumping charges. These had been the fortunate ones, as different Chinese language companies had been hit with a $25 price from the identical measure. That was adopted by a brand new “surveillance responsibility” that was utilized to module imports in 2020 – an oblique tax designed to drive up value-added tax (VAT) for importers. And in March 2024, antidumping measures had been prolonged to incorporate imports from extra competitively priced markets. A tariff of $25/m2 is now in place for photo voltaic modules imported from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Croatia, and Jordan.
If that wasn’t sufficient to discourage module imports, modifications to VAT guidelines, in November 2023, have had a big affect on the cost-per-Watt of overseas photovoltaics. Importers can now not deduct the VAT that’s generated via commerce coverage measures. The impact will be seen in a pattern calculation offered by analyst PwC, which imagined a 530 MW module with a unit worth of $0.11/W. It produces eye-watering outcomes. Earlier than Nov. 24, 2023, which introduced the rule change, the entire value for that hypothetical module, after accounting for commerce coverage measures, was $110.30, equal to $0.21/W. Beneath the brand new VAT regime, the identical mannequin would come to $269, or $0.51/W.
Authorities motion isn’t restricted to maintaining overseas modules out. There are numerous incentives in place aimed toward supporting home module manufacturing. In summer time 2023, a brand new 10-year feed-in tariff (FIT) of TRY 1.06 ($0.03)/kWh was launched for PV techniques put in between July 1, 2021, and Dec. 31, 2030. Initiatives that use PV modules made in Türkiye get much more assist, benefiting from an additional five-year FIT of TRY 0.288/kWh.
A government-backed Inexperienced Power Mortgage program additionally eases entry to finance whereas the nation’s longstanding apply of designating “organized industrial zones” – areas that profit from particular tax remedy – helps to facilitate funding in all types of home manufacturing.
Worldwide ambition
These are the market circumstances, however the place will they lead? Consolidation, probably. Module manufacturing in Türkiye is usually a module meeting enterprise with a robust core of well-established operators, plus an extended tail of recent entrants. Solely eight main firms have annual manufacturing capability of greater than 1 GW, in response to PwC evaluation, and as of February 2024, just one Turkish producer produced photo voltaic ingots.
Kalyon PV is on the high of an ever-growing pile. It’s additionally the one home producer producing its personal ingots, wafers, and cells. The present annual manufacturing capability at Kalyon is 2 GW for modules and photo voltaic cells. That determine is more likely to develop, in response to Kalyon, as the corporate reckons module manufacturing capability may go as excessive as 10 GW within the subsequent 10 years.
Between new installations in Türkiye and the corporate’s exercise abroad, there will likely be sufficient demand to accommodate that progress, stated an organization spokesperson at SolarEX.
“We imagine the Turkish market’s capability will enlarge in step with our enlargement,” they stated. “We imagine, within the subsequent 10 years Turkish buyers [will] have the monetary capability, and we imagine the market has sufficient capability. Our foremost market will likely be in the US, I imagine. The explanation why we attempt to promote there may be our product is admittedly [high] high quality and we’re considered one of two firms in Türkiye to get UL [Underwriters Laboratories] certification, permitting the merchandise to be bought within the US market.”
For giant-scale Turkish producers reminiscent of Kalyon PV, the US is the land of alternative. The Uyghur Pressured Labor Prevention Act retains competitors from China at bay, whereas the incentives supporting inexperienced funding included within the US Inflation Discount Act (IRA) current tantalizing alternatives.
“Our home product fee is 90%,” stated the spokesperson. “We have now a clear provide chain and we will show it to [United States] buyers, that’s why they’re actually fascinated with our merchandise.”
Kalyon shouldn’t be the one Turkish firm with American ambitions. In April 2024, Elin Power began producing photo voltaic modules at a web site in Texas. The corporate has already secured agreements with US distributors and plans to extend manufacturing capability to 2 GW inside 18 months. It adopted an analogous announcement from Energate Photo voltaic in October 2023. Energate plans to ramp up module manufacturing in the US and has additionally set a 2 GW goal. The corporate stated its plan was to provide 500 MW of gallium-doped monocrystalline passivated emitter, rear contact silicon panels and tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) panels in 2023, earlier than increasing to 1 GW in 2024.
It’s clear that the US has potential for Turkish module producers. Competing within the European Union, nonetheless, stays difficult. There is no such thing as a technique to match Chinese language modules on worth.
Chinese language affect
The large producers are additionally onerous to beat in terms of know-how. This was evident from the quantity of kit and uncooked materials suppliers who made the journey from China to SolarEX 2024. One Chinese language photo voltaic cell provider informed pv journal the corporate determined to attend the present on the final minute, motivated by accelerating demand from module assemblers.
For tools suppliers, Türkiye presents a possible lifeline in a difficult world market. Demand has dwindled because of the ongoing module oversupply state of affairs in Europe. As producers have put capability growth plans on maintain, Chinese language firms providing turnkey module meeting strains have been turning to Türkiye.
And regardless of the commerce boundaries, Chinese language producers are discovering their means into the market by investing in home manufacturing. Astronergy – a part of the Chinese language CHINT Group conglomerate – lately introduced a brand new manufacturing unit in Adana, Türkiye. An organization spokesperson confirmed to pv journal that manufacturing is anticipated to start on the web site within the third quarter of 2024, with an official inauguration of the manufacturing unit scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2024. The manufacturing facility is situated inside the Haci Sabanci organized industrial zone and is anticipated to make use of 150 folks in its first part. The 22,000 m² web site will produce its N5 and N7, negatively-doped, “n-type” TOPCon modules utilizing photo voltaic cells sourced from different Astronergy websites with cell manufacturing capability.
An Astronergy spokesperson stated Türkiye “is a spot with quite a lot of potential in photo voltaic power, due to this fact, Astronergy’s prime quality PV modules will begin manufacturing within the Turkish market. This would be the first direct funding [in the country from a] high six, tier-1 PV module maker.”
What subsequent?
There’s nonetheless extra to return: extra capability and extra functionality. It will not be sufficient to assist the quantity of recent market entrants assembling modules however the stage is about for continued photo voltaic set up progress with power storage more likely to play an growing position as effectively. Türkiye’s Nationwide Power Plan predicts that photo voltaic will account for 28% of whole put in technology capability in 2035 and power storage techniques will attain 7.5 GW of put in capability by that date. The plan assumes put in photo voltaic capability will improve by 3 GW per yr to 2030, rising to 4 GW per yr from 2030 to 2035.
The nation’s high module producers even have plans in movement to extend their functionality. In two or three years’ time, there might be 4 Turkish producers producing photo voltaic cells, in response to Mehmet Ozenbas, director at Technique&, a part of the PwC community. Ozenbas informed pv journal Sensible Photo voltaic Applied sciences is anticipated to start home photo voltaic cell manufacturing in 2024. The corporate additionally plans to provide its personal wafers within the close to future. Elin Power model Sirius and Schmid Penkintas are pursuing home cell and wafer manufacturing ambitions too.
Onshoring these key phases within the photo voltaic module provide chain seems to be like the subsequent large step for PV manufacturing in Türkiye. The variety of module meeting companies out there could have soared, however it will likely be these with their very own provide chains who will likely be finest positioned to make waves on the world stage.
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