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The US National Science Foundation (NSF) is a distinguished organization. Indeed, it’s celebrated in the backdrop, characters, and storyline of Kim Stanley Robinson’s Science in the Capital trilogy, one of his notable contributions to climate fiction. Rather than the victory of science and harmony he envisioned in that narrative, NSF is currently facing severe budget cuts under the Trump Administration, with decades of remarkable efforts in climate science and solutions on the verge of being eliminated.
NSF was established in 1950 by President Harry S. Truman, who enacted the National Science Foundation Act into law on May 10, 1950. The foundation was formed in response to increasing concerns regarding scientific research and national security, especially following advancements in nuclear physics and technology during World War II.
The advocacy for the creation of NSF was significantly driven by Vannevar Bush (unrelated to the Presidents), who had led the Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) during the war. His 1945 report, Science—The Endless Frontier, made a case for a federally funded, independent scientific agency to promote fundamental research, innovation, and technological progress. Truman, acknowledging the importance of ongoing scientific advancement, backed the initiative, although the final version of the NSF Act reflected compromises made in Congress regarding oversight and funding.
Throughout its initial decade, NSF primarily financed fundamental scientific research, including studies in atmospheric and oceanic sciences. A pivotal moment arrived with the International Geophysical Year (1957-1958), during which it played a crucial role in coordinating research on atmospheric circulation, ice sheets, and ocean currents. These initiatives laid the groundwork for future climate research, marking the inception of a more organized approach to comprehending Earth’s evolving environment.
In the 1960s, NSF supported groundbreaking climate modeling efforts, which included research on the carbon cycle and atmospheric CO₂ dynamics. It also provided early funding for paleoclimate investigations utilizing ice cores and sediments to recreate past climatic conditions. In 1965, the U.S. government, aided by NSF-funded research, issued one of the first official reports outlining the potential effects of CO₂ emissions on global temperatures, signifying an important early recognition of anthropogenic climate change.
During the 1970s, NSF broadened its focus on climate science by initiating the Research Applied to National Needs program in 1971, which funded studies on climate impacts and adaptation. In 1974, it launched the Climate Dynamics Program, acknowledging the significance of long-term climate research. Over this decade, NSF also supported advancements in general circulation models, which became the foundation of modern climate modeling, enabling scientists to gain a deeper understanding of the atmospheric and oceanic interactions that drive global climate patterns.
In the 1980s, NSF was instrumental in promoting climate science by backing the first major ice core drilling project in Greenland in 1980, yielding historical CO₂ data crucial for comprehending past climate changes. In 1983, funding for multidisciplinary climate research increased following the National Climate Program Act of 1978, reaffirming NSF’s commitment to studying climate systems. By 1988, research funded by NSF contributed to James Hansen’s landmark testimony before Congress concerning global warming, which helped bring climate change to the forefront of public and political conversations.
In the 1990s, NSF intensified its focus on climate solutions and mitigation with the launch of interdisciplinary programs aimed at understanding human and environmental interactions. In 1991, it established the Human Dimensions of Global Change program to explore the social and economic ramifications of climate change. NSF also boosted funding for research on climate-energy interactions, including advancements in renewable energy. Throughout this decade, it played a vital role in supporting research contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, aiding in the refinement of global climate models and informing international climate policy discussions.
In the 2000s, NSF augmented its investment in climate solutions by supporting extensive initiatives focused on understanding historical and future climate changes. It funded paleoclimate programs to decipher past climate patterns, offering valuable context for current climate trends. A significant portion of NSF’s Office of Polar Programs (OPP) budget—approximately 60%—is allocated for the operations and maintenance of Antarctic research facilities and infrastructure. The Arctic System Science program advanced research on ice loss and its global ramifications, while new sustainability science and adaptation programs aimed at developing strategies for resilience in the face of climate change.
In the 2010s, NSF significantly increased funding for climate resilience and adaptation research, recognizing the urgency of addressing global environmental changes. It supported advancements in high-resolution climate modeling, allowing for more accurate predictions of extreme weather events and long-term climate trends. Investments in artificial intelligence and machine learning improved climate data analysis, enhancing forecasting capabilities and informing policy decisions. During this time, NSF also expanded interdisciplinary research initiatives, melding climate science with engineering, social sciences, and economics to develop comprehensive strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change.
In recent years, NSF has continued to spearhead innovation in climate solutions, funding research on carbon capture technologies, sustainable energy systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure. It has sponsored studies on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ocean acidification, and polar ice dynamics, ensuring a wider understanding of environmental transformations. Through international collaborations, NSF has facilitated knowledge exchange and coordinated research efforts to address climate challenges on a global scale.
All of this has been completely aligned with the original purpose behind its establishment. Climate change presents significant challenges to U.S. national security, with rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity threatening military infrastructure, global stability, and operational readiness. The Department of Defense has identified climate change as a “threat multiplier,” intensifying disputes over food, water, and migration, particularly in already vulnerable regions. Military installations, including vital naval bases, face escalating risks from flooding and hurricanes, prompting investments in resilience and adaptation strategies. The Pentagon has integrated climate considerations into strategic planning, highlighting the necessity for energy efficiency, adoption of renewable power, and security of supply chains to maintain operational capability.
Unsurprisingly, the Trump Administration is cutting funding to NSF, just as it had previously done with NIH, including dismissing the team focused on the rapidly escalating threats of
H5N1, the avian influenza that’s evolving into a deadly strain.
On February 18, 2025, NSF terminated 168 staff, approximately 10 percent of its personnel, in response to an executive directive issued by President Donald Trump a week earlier demanding significant cuts to the federal workforce. The dismissals predominantly impacted probationary employees, including those who had recently been switched from permanent to probationary status without prior notice, a decision that has raised legal and ethical concerns.
Part-time expert appointees, many of whom were eminent scientists and researchers advising NSF on critical policy and grant decisions, were also let go. These experts, often key players in their respective disciplines, were instrumental in shaping national research priorities, evaluating grant applications, and providing objective scientific evaluations. Their dismissal has raised alarms about the future of evidence-based policymaking within the agency and the potential degradation of the scientific integrity that has historically guided NSF’s funding decisions.
NSF is currently under the leadership of Director Sethuraman Panchanathan, who has been in office since June 2020. He has overseen significant initiatives in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and climate science research while advocating for increased federal funding for scientific innovation. Under his guidance, NSF has broadened international research collaborations and introduced programs to enhance STEM education and workforce development. He played a pivotal role in enacting the CHIPS and Science Act, designed to bolster U.S. competitiveness in emerging technologies. Once again, the CHIPS and Science Act is central to U.S. national security considerations, as it aims to reshore the semiconductor manufacturing crucial to U.S. defense systems.
In light of recent workforce cuts, NSF’s Chief Administrative Officer, Micah Cheatham, addressed staff during a meeting, remarking that the recent layoffs are “the first of many upcoming workforce reductions.” He suggested that it was probable that 50% of NSF’s personnel could be dismissed within six months.
As of February 2025, the Trump administration has widened its list of prohibited terms in research and government reports to include language related to climate change. Terms like “climate change,” “global warming,” and “emission reduction” have been earmarked for removal from official communications. This Orwellian language control was prevalent in totalitarian regimes of the past and is indicative of the potential fate of all research related to climate science and solutions within NSF.
Scientific research has been crucial to U.S. global competitiveness, fueling technological innovation, economic growth, and national security for decades. Progress in areas like artificial intelligence, renewable energy, biotechnology, and quantum computing has positioned the U.S. as a leader in emerging sectors, cultivating high-value jobs and maintaining a strategic advantage over international competitors. Federal investment in research assured that American institutions stayed at the forefront of discovery, attracting top talent and enabling breakthroughs that influenced the global economy.
The new U.S. Cultural Revolution is putting an end to this, just as it halts the influx of highly skilled, experienced, and talented resources from around the globe under the H1B program. This program has been vital in drawing the brightest and best immigrant talent to the United States, driving innovation, economic growth, and technological prowess. By offering a pathway for exceptionally skilled professionals in fields like engineering, medicine, and artificial intelligence, the program has enhanced the nation’s workforce and global standing. Many of the leading tech companies, including those in Silicon Valley, were founded or led by immigrants who initially arrived in the U.S. on H-1B visas.
Today, over 40% of Fortune 500 firms were established by immigrants or their descendants, highlighting the significant contribution of foreign-born talent in shaping the U.S. economy. This scheme has also played a crucial role in advancing research, especially in universities and national laboratories, where foreign-born scientists have contributed to breakthroughs in vital fields. Restricting or limiting access to H-1B visas risks pushing top talent to rival nations, undermining the U.S.’s ability to lead in science, technology, and innovation.
U.S. researchers will now seek research positions in international institutions. Global talent and researchers will cease to flow into the United States. The policies of the Trump Administration are directly causing a brain drain from the nation. They are obstructing climate science research on a global scale.
My thoughts are with the talented researchers, academics, and bureaucrats who have so diligently and wisely focused their efforts on some of the major challenges of the 21st Century, and whose lives are now in disarray. I hope their transitions are gentle and swift, so that their voices and talents aren’t lost to the rest of the world, even as their nation turns its back on them.
As I stated post-election, the world is moving on without the United States as it declines.
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