The U.S. wind industry is expected to add more than 53 GW of new capacity by 2030, following a surge in construction activity that prompted Wood Mackenzie to increase its five-year greenfield forecast by 5% quarter-on-quarter, according to the firm’s U.S. Wind Energy Monitor Q2 2026 report.
The report attributes the revised outlook to accelerating project execution as developers move to complete projects before the expiration of federal tax incentives. Construction activity continued to strengthen during the first quarter of 2026, supported by increasing corporate demand for renewable electricity and growing investment in projects that have already reached the final investment stage.
Corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) recorded strong year-on-year growth in Q1 2026, driven largely by demand from data centres. One of the quarter’s notable transactions was a 1.9 GW portfolio agreement between Google and Xcel Energy, highlighting the increasing role of technology companies in supporting utility-scale wind development through long-term renewable energy procurement.
According to Wood Mackenzie, onshore wind construction starts increased 8% between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 as developers accelerated project execution ahead of the July 2026 safe harbour deadline. Projects that have already reached Final Investment Decision (FID) account for 58% of expected greenfield capacity additions through 2028, reflecting strong confidence in the near-term development pipeline.
The report also noted that firm turbine orders reached 1.1 GW during Q1 2026, representing a fivefold increase compared with the same period last year. However, permitting delays and grid interconnection constraints are expected to shift a larger share of early-stage projects toward the latter part of the decade, with annual new-build additions projected to peak in 2028.
In the offshore segment, Wood Mackenzie forecasts installations to peak in 2027, when the remaining 5.2 GW currently under construction is expected to become operational. Despite this near-term growth, the longer-term offshore outlook remains challenging after nine offshore wind auctions collapsed during the first half of 2026, resulting in the termination of leases covering more than 2,900 km². The report indicates that proceeds from the federal US$2.7 billion offshore lease buyout are likely to be redirected toward conventional energy, geothermal, and fossil fuel investments.
Looking beyond 2030, the report highlights significant opportunities in wind asset repowering. By 2035, approximately 81 GW of installed wind capacity will have reached 15 years of operation, creating a substantial repowering market. Wood Mackenzie estimates that at least 45% of its three-year repowering forecast is already underway, supported by established project precedents that are reducing development costs and timelines.
Diego Espinosa, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said the upgraded outlook reflects a market focused on project execution, with developers prioritising commercial operation before the tax credit window closes. Kárys Prado, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, added that while the industry’s reliance on tax incentives will diminish after 2030, future growth will depend on new investment models capable of capitalising on strong electricity demand and tightening energy supply.